We all know somebody that's really bad at picking winners, right?
Hell, maybe you're that loser! (don't worry if you are; I used to lose like crazy until I got disciplined and figured this whole sports betting thing out).
I remember when I got the genius idea that I would finally make a consistent income by just betting the opposite side of the picks that a losing handicapper would give out.
It seemed like a sure thing. I mean, it's super easy to find a losing tout, right?
Yes ... and no.
You can go to any sports betting forum and check out the 'Service Plays' section, where people post and share the sports picks that they buy, and you won't find any shortage of "professional" handicappers that seem like they're always losing.
I had the same thought at one time. It was genius, I tell ya.
I was going to just fade (fading means to bet the opposite side of what a handicapper gives out) a few of the big-name touts (a tout is just another name for a handicapper or tipster) and make some money that way.
Unfortunately, it didn't work out too well.
You see, most handicappers, just like most sports bettors, win between 48% and 52% of their games.
Sure, most of them are absolutely great at marketing, but in the end, their handicapping abilities are pretty much the same as any regular sports fan.
And just like with most sports bettors, most handicappers are losers. So you would think that the key to winning is just to fade them.
I mean, I thought the same thing, too, and it burned me in the end.
You see, while they do lose most of the time, because of the standard -110 juice you have to pay, you have to win 52.4% of your bets just to break even. Or a handicapper has to lose more than 47.6% of the time in order for you to even afford to pay for his picks.
Even the greatest fade out there, Brandon Lang, wins just 50% of the time. So even if you straight-up faded his picks, you'd still juice out and lose money. The key to making money by fading Lang is by fading his "dime" amounts. You can read the article I wrote on how to make money betting on sports by fading Brandon Lang.
Ultimately, there is money to be made in fading handicappers. After all, it's the entire basis for all of my systems right here on my website. Even my CF system stands for my Contrarian Fade system.
However, I would say that with very few exceptions (Brandon Lang being one of them), that no, you can't make money by just straight-up fading losing handicappers. You still need an edge.
Finding that edge certainly is possible. It's taken me over a decade of pouring over so many stats and analyzing the heck out of my spreadsheet, but it is doable. All I've gotta say is that you've certainly got your work cut out for yah.
Steve firmly believes that most meals can be improved with mac n cheese. When he's not helping people make money betting on sports, Steve loves mountain biking, playing video games with his son, & annoying his wife. Oh, and he's a big Dallas Cowboys fan. Don't hate.