Category Archives for Sports Betting

leaving money on the table

Why do you like to leave money on the table?

You know, it's still shocking to me that there are sports bettors out there, who want to do this professionally; who want to do this full-time, or at least generate a good second income from betting on sports, and that these guys out there just have one out.

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Why I love betting against you

Most people are really bad at betting on sports.

Just go to any sports betting forum, and you'll see all the posts about bad beats or guaranteed lock picks (that usually lose).

Gambling meccas like Las Vegas or Macau exist for one reason: because most people lose.

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This one thing changed everything

How my sports betting strategy has evolved (and become much more profitable)

I’ve been trying to beat the sports betting game for a long time now. It’s only until the past couple of years that I actually got disciplined enough to start thinking that I could actually be able to (one day) quit my job and bet on sports for a living.

My original plan was to start with a $2,000 bankroll and turn it into $1 million dollars within 10 years.

Now, based on my rate of growth, I’m going to try to do it within the next 5 years, by 2022.

And whether I succeed or fail, it’s going to be quite a bit of fun either way.

I know that I will succeed because...

My confidence in my ability to pull this off stems from one main thing: tracking my bets.

If I didn’t have my spreadsheet with thousands of bets recorded in it, and numerous metrics that I can quickly see, then I just wouldn’t have the confidence that I do now.

I’ve been through the losing streak from hell, and while I came out of it beaten and bruised, it didn’t break me. Instead, it taught me plenty of lessons.

It taught me things like not using so many handicappers at the same time, without a sufficient bankroll to handle all of those bets. It taught me that it’s okay to bail on a handicapper if he loses for months at a time. It taught me that it’s okay to even contact him and try to get his take on things.

But above everything else, it taught me how vital it is to track my bets

Had I not been keeping track of my bets, that losing streak would've broken me

I don’t know many people that could consistently lose quite a bit for 3 months in a row, and still keep on going. That either takes an incredible amount of dedication, or stupidity.

But since I had numbers in black-and-white, staring back at me, I knew that I had to keep going. I had a profit graph that told me the exact day things took a turn for the worse. I was easily able to go back to that very day and see what I changed that resulted in such a disastrous losing streak, and then correct it.

You can look at any of my monthly updates and see the exact moment that my losing streak started, and when I made the change that fixed it.

I didn't always have this level of dedication

I can still remember opening my first sportsbook account at BetUS back in the early 2000s. I had bought an NBA/MLB sports betting system that had me chasing my losses, and it worked really well until it didn’t anymore.

I would watch every single game that I bet on. It seemed like I was sweating every game; very few were just outright winners early on.

My betting was erratic, and frequently fueled by alcohol and Red Bull. It was very common for me to bet anywhere from $20 - $100 on a game, and then bet $250 - $500 on a night game. I was the very definition of a losing sports bettor.

Those were the early days, and thank God they’re long gone, dead, and buried.

If I can save just one person from going down the road I went down, then I’ll consider this site a success. Unfortunately, I fear that it’s an education that has to be learned by the majority of professional sports bettors.

You must learn how to lose

After all, if you haven’t learned how to lose, how are you going to handle your business when you do start losing? And make no mistake about it; I don’t care what kind of a winning streak you’re on right now. I don’t care if you haven’t had a losing year in the past 5 years. You will have a losing streak. You will have a losing month. You might even have a 3-month losing streak. Are you prepared for it?

I sure wasn’t, and I’m glad that I already got it out of the way, because now I know that I can handle anything in my business.

The interesting part, to me, is that I know that my sports betting strategy will always be a work-in-progress. It’s continuously evolving. Markets change all the time, and we have to make adjustments to those markets, if we want to keep making money.

I mean, just a year ago, I had barely started live betting. Now it consists of the majority of my bets. Sure, I’d like the betting limits to be higher (I’m already past the betting limits for my 5Dimes account), but it’s been incredibly profitable for me so far.

I know that it won’t always be this profitable for me, because of what I just said: markets change all the time. Markets try to become as efficient as possible. When a market becomes fully 100% efficient, I can’t make any money.

I don’t know what the next 5 years holds in store. I hope that I will still be live betting in 5 years, because my 10-year million dollar plan has been reduced to a 5-year million dollar plan.

Will I be able to pull it off?

Fuck if I know.

But I’m going to do everything I can, and use everything that I’ve learned, to try to pull it off.

Good luck on your bets!

How to turn $1,000 into $1 million dollars in 11 years with a 6% monthly return

It sounds crazy, doesn't it?

That you could actually start with $1,000 (and a ton of patience) and turn it into $1,000,000 in just 11 years seems like one of those things that are just too good to be true.

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What odds does your parlay pay out?

How to find out the odds your parlay bet is paying out

Yes, I bet parlays (also known as accumulator bets outside of America). They're very profitable, when used with an existing winning sports betting system.

I've heard it time and time again that parlays and teasers are sucker bets, but I have no problem using them for +EV (positive expected value) bets.

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've Learned Making 2,031 bets in 6 months

What I learned after making 2,031 bets

The first time I wrote a 1,000 bet update was back in March. Now here we are at the end of May, and I've hit another 1,000 bets. 2,031 bets, to be exact.

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How to handle a losing streak in sports betting

11 Must-Follow Rules to Handle a Losing Streak

I've won more money than I've lost. I have the stats, records and graphs to prove it. It's still hard to lose. 

It's easy to get cocky and over-confident when your bets are winning and your bankroll keeps growing.

It's only when the winning stops and the losing streak from hell shows up when you get to find out what you're really made of.

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My profit plan for the 2017 MLB season

Baseball is the most profitable American sport to bet on, yet it's one of the least popular sports (in terms of betting volume).

No other sport comes remotely close to the number of games played.

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How I keep my sportsbook accounts from getting banned or limited

Do sportsbooks ban legitimate, honest, winning players?

Sometimes, but they usually just limit the amount of money you can bet and won’t offer you free bonuses anymore.

It sucks, and it’s not really fair, but it is what it is. Sportsbooks are corporations, in business to make money. They can take our money all they want, but once we take too much of theirs, they don’t want our business anymore.

There are a few sportsbooks out there that realize that we’re not taking their money; we’re taking money away from other sports bettors. Sportsbooks are supposed to make their money from the vig, the juice. That’s what it’s there for.

In all the years I’ve been betting, I’ve had 2 sportsbook account shutdown. They didn’t even limit the amount I could bet. They just emailed me and said my account was being closed, management decision. Nothing I could do about it.

Ever since then, I’ve kept all of my accounts, and I still regularly receive bonuses from the sportsbooks that offer them. I’m smart about how I place my bets.

It costs me a little profit, but it’s worth it in just the free bonus money that I get.

Bet what everybody else is betting on

First, I try to come across as a lucky, recreational bettor. I only bet on big markets. NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, MLB, NHL and MMA. I don’t bet on obscure college games in divisions that nobody cares about. In fact, a lot of the games I bet on are on TV.

You don’t want to stand out from the crowd. My sports betting systems have a lot to do with public opinion, so obviously I need a lot of data. As a result of this, I only have picks on games in big markets.

For my live betting system, sportsbooks only offer live lines on big games (for the American sports). You won’t be able to get a live bet down on a small game.

Don’t constantly withdraw your money

Second, I don’t continuously withdraw my winnings. I leave them in the sportsbook until the end of each major season and then withdraw my winnings from that season, leaving a balance there to continue betting with.

What I mean by this is that after the Super Bowl is finished, I’ll check my bet tracker spreadsheet and see how much money I made in the NFL. I will withdraw that amount via Bitcoin or Skrill.

Be a homer

What’s a homer?

A homer is a person that always bets on their favorite team. They don’t really have a reason for it; they just like to bet on their favorite team. A homer is the very definition of a recreational sports bettor. Sportsbooks love homers. Be a homer.

You see, I try to lose on purpose on certain games. I have my favorite teams. I bet on them at the sportsbook I want to lose at, and I bet the other side at the sportsbook I want to win at. I keep track of this through my bet tracker spreadsheet. Basically, I’m trading my balance from one sportsbook to another.

Sure, sometimes the bets win at the wrong book, and I have to do it again, but I keep careful track of this. Trust me, I was never a winning sports bettor before I got disciplined and created my sports betting systems. I know exactly how to lose.

The goal is to get my money out of certain sportsbooks (so that I rarely withdraw from them, only deposit) and into other sportsbooks (that welcome winning players).

Sure, it costs a little money to do this. I basically juice out, which means I lose the money from the juice. But like I already said, the free bonus money I get more than makes up for it.

Never open multiple accounts

Don’t be an idiot. You have no idea the amount of technology the sportsbooks are using these days. They have databases that share player information with each other, too. They know when you’ve created multiple accounts.

They may let you open a new account.

They may let you fund a new account.

They may let you bet on a new account for 6 months.

But just wait until you try to withdraw your winnings.

Ever read the Terms of Service for the sportsbooks you use? Once they find out you’ve opened multiple accounts, they have the right to close your accounts and take your winnings!

You take a huge risk by opening multiple accounts. You might think you can be sneaky and open it in your best friend’s name, or your father-in-law’s name, but nope. You’ll mess up somewhere along the way, and they’ll connect your fake account to your real account (or a previous banned/limited account), and bam!

It’s not worth the risk.

Don’t be stupid about it.

No multiple accounts.

You have to think corporate

Thinking corporate is something that my corporate job taught me. Sportsbooks aren’t shady rinky-dink operations. They’re ran by huge corporations, that have accounting departments, risk management departments, and fraud departments.

They have P&L (Profit & Loss) statements, and you’re just another number to them. They’re ran by a bunch of suits that have Casual Fridays where you get to wear a company-branded polo shirt and jeans.

You have to play their game.

Remember, this is your business. This is their business, too. Your best financial interest is to always consider what their best financial interest is, too.

Certain sportsbooks (like Pinnacle, Betfair, and Bookmaker) welcome professional sports bettors. These sportsbooks are the smart ones that realize they make their money from the juice, so they just want the action.

Remember, you’re not taking the sportsbook’s money. You’re taking the money from some random gambler that bet the other side of the game.

Be smart about it. Think corporate.

Why it’s hard to make a living betting on sports

Going in, you have to know that the world is against you. Nobody wants you to win. Nobody wants you to be the guy that figured out how to beat the system. Just about everybody you know wants you to fail. Can you handle that?

Maybe you have thick skin. Maybe you have that fuck the world mentality going on. That’s something that I really like about older people. They’ve been through enough shit that they naturally have that fuck you ability. I love it.

It’s you against the world

The world is against you. The system is against you. The sportsbooks are against you. Other sports bettors are against you. Hell, even you are against you (even if you don’t realize it). You are your own worst enemy.

Even if you manage to brush off everything else that is against you, chances are that you’re probably not well-equipped to handle yourself. Most of us aren’t. And that’s why, for the vast majority of sports bettors, you will fail. You will not be able to bet on sports for a living.

At least, not until you’ve had enough; when you reach that moment where you are sick and tired of life beating you down. When you are finally beaten into submission, when you’re ready to throw in the towel, to raise the white flag of defeat, to admit that you absolutely suck at sports betting; only then do you have a fighting chance of making it.

Killing the Thrill

Since you’re reading this right now, I’m going to assume that you’re ready. I’m going to assume that you’re ready to admit that betting on sports is not a game. It’s not a hobby. It’s a business. It requires hard work. It requires discipline and dedication. It’s not something you do with the boys on Sundays while eating wings and getting fucked up.

Just like with any other business, you have to have a plan. What are you going to do? You’re probably not a statistical math genius, right? You will have to get your picks from somewhere. 99% of handicappers are scammers. They exist only to steal your money, your time, and your pride.

You will have to learn how to be incredibly disciplined. You will have to learn how to keep placing your bets even when you’ve just lost your last 15 bets. You will have to learn to accept the reality of having 4 losing months in a row. You will have to remove all emotion from this business. You will have to be persistent, thick-skinned, and dedicated to make it in this business. In other words, you have to completely kill the thrill.

Chances are … you can’t

You know what? Most people can’t do it. You probably won’t be able to do it, either. It took me years before I was able to get to the point where I am now. Who knows? Maybe you’re already at that point right now. Maybe you will be one of the 1% of sports bettors that actually do make it. I hope you are.

I love this business. It drew me in, and it energizes me. The losing streaks used to wipe me out emotionally (and financially). They drained me, until I learned to look at this like a business. Losses are just a cost of doing business; they are just another expense. All businesses have revenue, and all businesses have expenses. Wins are revenue, losses are expenses. It’s simple accounting.

You’re not an island

Betting on sports for a living is quite difficult, until you learn to change your mindset and treat it like a business. You can’t do it on your own. There’s no scalability in that. I can’t speak for you, but personally, I dream big. I don’t start something if it’s not scalable. I have no interest in buying myself a job. I already have a day job that I’m trying to quit one day.

I figured out that I can’t do this on my own, and neither can you. You need suppliers (handicappers & systems). You need an army behind you. That’s part of my mission here; to create an army of intelligent sports bettors that do this for a living. Why? Because there is strength in numbers.

I developed 3 sports betting systems on my own. They target the American sports. Maybe you’ve developed your own system. Maybe you’re really good at betting one of the sports that I don’t have a system for, like soccer, rugby or tennis. I would love to have my money in action 24/7. Why let it sit there, not making me money for a large portion of the day?

And of course, there’s the social aspect of it. My goal is to create a global community of people that bet on sports for a living. A community where we collectively feel a unity between us. Where we share our thoughts, experiences, successes, failures, tips and also just say … hey, how ya doin?

It takes intense dedication

The past 2 weeks have shown me incredible results. I’ve increased my bankroll substantially. It has been one of those legendary winning streaks that dreams are made of. It has been one hell of a December to remember.

But I can’t let that rush get to my head. That rush will ruin me, if I let it. I have to stay smart, dedicated, and focused. The losing streak is coming. It’s right around the corner. I have to be prepared to go 2-15, and still get up the next day and make the same size bets, as if the past had never happened. Can you do that?

If you can’t, then you’re not ready. By all means, stick around and follow along as I (and the rest of my readers) remain calm and continue to crush it. It will click for you eventually, and when it does, the sky is the limit.

Maybe a hobby should stay a hobby?

Remember, the world is against you. People want you to fail. You won’t even be able to tell most people what you’re doing. For one, they won’t care, and two, they’ll just be incredibly negative about it. Nobody wants you to succeed. Misery loves company.

Are you ready to handle a business where you have to keep quiet about it? Maybe just your spouse and your closest 1 or 2 friends will know about it. Are you okay with that?

Are you ready to handle a business that pretty much takes the fun out of something you do for entertainment? I used to bet on sports for fun, to add a rush to a game I was going to watch. I don’t do that anymore. I don’t bet on sports recreationally anymore. Sure, I still go to sports bars to watch UFC or my favorite football team, but I don’t bet on them anymore. It’s not fun for me. It’s business.

Are you different?

I personally love it. I wouldn’t have it any other way, and I hope that I will be doing this for years to come. Chances are, you won’t be. It takes a certain type of person; a certain type of character. Most people don’t have it. You probably don’t have it.

And there’s nothing wrong with that. Like I said, 99% of sports bettors don’t have that level of discipline. They simply can’t do it. I don’t fault them. Not everybody can bake cakes or cut hair or set a cast or defend you in a lawsuit … or run a successful sports betting business.

But if you think you’re different. No, scratch that. If you know that you’re different, then you will be able to make it. You will be able to at least make a nice side income from sports betting. Your bankroll and quality of desired lifestyle are really the only limiting factors in the equation.

What you can realistically expect

Just like with any other business, expect the first 3-5 years to grow slow. Unless you’re coming in with a $100,000 to invest, then it’s going to take time to build up your bankroll to a level that can produce the level of income that you will require for your desired quality of life. If you only have $1,000 to start with, that means you will start off risking $10 a game. It would take you more time to grow your investment into something that produces $1,000 a month in income, compared to somebody that started with $25,000 and would start off risking $250 a game.

For most people that bet on sports, reading those numbers might be a shock to them. That’s just the reality of it. Those are the numbers to expect. That’s what it takes. The human brain wants what it wants now. We demand instant gratification. We’re not willing to put in the hours and do the work. We want it all, and we want it all right now.

It doesn’t work that way with this business (nor with any other business). As I’ve said countless times, success requires dedication. It requires patience. It requires persistence. Discipline. Obsession. Can you be disciplined? Are you willing to take it to a level where people would say that you’re obsessed? Obsession is just the hardcore version of dedication.

This blog is about transparency; no sugar-coating. It’s about what it really takes to make it in this business. It’s okay if you’re not cut out for it; most people aren’t. I am.
I will make a living from betting on sports.

Will you?