Most people are really bad at betting on sports.
Just go to any sports betting forum, and you'll see all the posts about bad beats or guaranteed lock picks (that usually lose).
Gambling meccas like Las Vegas or Macau exist for one reason: because most people lose.
I’ve been trying to beat the sports betting game for a long time now. It’s only until the past couple of years that I actually got disciplined enough to start thinking that I could actually be able to (one day) quit my job and bet on sports for a living.
My original plan was to start with a $2,000 bankroll and turn it into $1 million dollars within 10 years.
It sounds crazy, doesn't it?
That you could actually start with $1,000 (and a ton of patience) and turn it into $1,000,000 in just 11 years seems like one of those things that are just too good to be true.
Yes, I bet parlays (also known as accumulator bets outside of America). They're very profitable, when used with an existing winning sports betting system.
I've heard it time and time again that parlays and teasers are sucker bets, but I have no problem using them for +EV (positive expected value) bets.
I've won more money than I've lost. I have the stats, records and graphs to prove it. It's still hard to lose.
It's easy to get cocky and over-confident when your bets are winning and your bankroll keeps growing.
It's only when the winning stops and the losing streak from hell shows up when you get to find out what you're really made of.
Baseball is the most profitable American sport to bet on, yet it's one of the least popular sports (in terms of betting volume).
No other sport comes remotely close to the number of games played.
Do sportsbooks ban legitimate, honest, winning players?
Sometimes, but they usually just limit the amount of money you can bet and won’t offer you free bonuses anymore.
It sucks, and it’s not really fair, but it is what it is. Sportsbooks are corporations, in business to make money. They can take our money all they want, but once we take too much of theirs, they don’t want our business anymore.
There are a few sportsbooks out there that realize that we’re not taking their money; we’re taking money away from other sports bettors. Sportsbooks are supposed to make their money from the vig, the juice. That’s what it’s there for.
In all the years I’ve been betting, I’ve had 2 sportsbook account shutdown. They didn’t even limit the amount I could bet. They just emailed me and said my account was being closed, management decision. Nothing I could do about it.
Ever since then, I’ve kept all of my accounts, and I still regularly receive bonuses from the sportsbooks that offer them. I’m smart about how I place my bets.
It costs me a little profit, but it’s worth it in just the free bonus money that I get.
First, I try to come across as a lucky, recreational bettor. I only bet on big markets. NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, MLB, NHL and MMA. I don’t bet on obscure college games in divisions that nobody cares about. In fact, a lot of the games I bet on are on TV.
You don’t want to stand out from the crowd. My sports betting systems have a lot to do with public opinion, so obviously I need a lot of data. As a result of this, I only have picks on games in big markets.
For my live betting system, sportsbooks only offer live lines on big games (for the American sports). You won’t be able to get a live bet down on a small game.
Second, I don’t continuously withdraw my winnings. I leave them in the sportsbook until the end of each major season and then withdraw my winnings from that season, leaving a balance there to continue betting with.
What I mean by this is that after the Super Bowl is finished, I’ll check my bet tracker spreadsheet and see how much money I made in the NFL. I will withdraw that amount via Bitcoin or Skrill.
What’s a homer?
A homer is a person that always bets on their favorite team. They don’t really have a reason for it; they just like to bet on their favorite team. A homer is the very definition of a recreational sports bettor. Sportsbooks love homers. Be a homer.
You see, I try to lose on purpose on certain games. I have my favorite teams. I bet on them at the sportsbook I want to lose at, and I bet the other side at the sportsbook I want to win at. I keep track of this through my bet tracker spreadsheet. Basically, I’m trading my balance from one sportsbook to another.
Sure, sometimes the bets win at the wrong book, and I have to do it again, but I keep careful track of this. Trust me, I was never a winning sports bettor before I got disciplined and created my sports betting systems. I know exactly how to lose.
The goal is to get my money out of certain sportsbooks (so that I rarely withdraw from them, only deposit) and into other sportsbooks (that welcome winning players).
Sure, it costs a little money to do this. I basically juice out, which means I lose the money from the juice. But like I already said, the free bonus money I get more than makes up for it.
Don’t be an idiot. You have no idea the amount of technology the sportsbooks are using these days. They have databases that share player information with each other, too. They know when you’ve created multiple accounts.
They may let you open a new account.
They may let you fund a new account.
They may let you bet on a new account for 6 months.
But just wait until you try to withdraw your winnings.
Ever read the Terms of Service for the sportsbooks you use? Once they find out you’ve opened multiple accounts, they have the right to close your accounts and take your winnings!
You take a huge risk by opening multiple accounts. You might think you can be sneaky and open it in your best friend’s name, or your father-in-law’s name, but nope. You’ll mess up somewhere along the way, and they’ll connect your fake account to your real account (or a previous banned/limited account), and bam!
It’s not worth the risk.
Don’t be stupid about it.
No multiple accounts.
Thinking corporate is something that my corporate job taught me. Sportsbooks aren’t shady rinky-dink operations. They’re ran by huge corporations, that have accounting departments, risk management departments, and fraud departments.
They have P&L (Profit & Loss) statements, and you’re just another number to them. They’re ran by a bunch of suits that have Casual Fridays where you get to wear a company-branded polo shirt and jeans.
You have to play their game.
Remember, this is your business. This is their business, too. Your best financial interest is to always consider what their best financial interest is, too.
Certain sportsbooks (like Pinnacle, Betfair, and Bookmaker) welcome professional sports bettors. These sportsbooks are the smart ones that realize they make their money from the juice, so they just want the action.
Remember, you’re not taking the sportsbook’s money. You’re taking the money from some random gambler that bet the other side of the game.
Be smart about it. Think corporate.
Going in, you have to know that the world is against you. Nobody wants you to win. Nobody wants you to be the guy that figured out how to beat the system. Just about everybody you know wants you to fail. Can you handle that?
Maybe you have thick skin. Maybe you have that fuck the world mentality going on. That’s something that I really like about older people. They’ve been through enough shit that they naturally have that fuck you ability. I love it.
The world is against you. The system is against you. The sportsbooks are against you. Other sports bettors are against you. Hell, even you are against you (even if you don’t realize it). You are your own worst enemy.
Even if you manage to brush off everything else that is against you, chances are that you’re probably not well-equipped to handle yourself. Most of us aren’t. And that’s why, for the vast majority of sports bettors, you will fail. You will not be able to bet on sports for a living.
At least, not until you’ve had enough; when you reach that moment where you are sick and tired of life beating you down. When you are finally beaten into submission, when you’re ready to throw in the towel, to raise the white flag of defeat, to admit that you absolutely suck at sports betting; only then do you have a fighting chance of making it.
Since you’re reading this right now, I’m going to assume that you’re ready. I’m going to assume that you’re ready to admit that betting on sports is not a game. It’s not a hobby. It’s a business. It requires hard work. It requires discipline and dedication. It’s not something you do with the boys on Sundays while eating wings and getting fucked up.
Just like with any other business, you have to have a plan. What are you going to do? You’re probably not a statistical math genius, right? You will have to get your picks from somewhere. 99% of handicappers are scammers. They exist only to steal your money, your time, and your pride.
You will have to learn how to be incredibly disciplined. You will have to learn how to keep placing your bets even when you’ve just lost your last 15 bets. You will have to learn to accept the reality of having 4 losing months in a row. You will have to remove all emotion from this business. You will have to be persistent, thick-skinned, and dedicated to make it in this business. In other words, you have to completely kill the thrill.
You know what? Most people can’t do it. You probably won’t be able to do it, either. It took me years before I was able to get to the point where I am now. Who knows? Maybe you’re already at that point right now. Maybe you will be one of the 1% of sports bettors that actually do make it. I hope you are.
I love this business. It drew me in, and it energizes me. The losing streaks used to wipe me out emotionally (and financially). They drained me, until I learned to look at this like a business. Losses are just a cost of doing business; they are just another expense. All businesses have revenue, and all businesses have expenses. Wins are revenue, losses are expenses. It’s simple accounting.
Betting on sports for a living is quite difficult, until you learn to change your mindset and treat it like a business. You can’t do it on your own. There’s no scalability in that. I can’t speak for you, but personally, I dream big. I don’t start something if it’s not scalable. I have no interest in buying myself a job. I already have a day job that I’m trying to quit one day.
I figured out that I can’t do this on my own, and neither can you. You need suppliers (handicappers & systems). You need an army behind you. That’s part of my mission here; to create an army of intelligent sports bettors that do this for a living. Why? Because there is strength in numbers.
I developed 3 sports betting systems on my own. They target the American sports. Maybe you’ve developed your own system. Maybe you’re really good at betting one of the sports that I don’t have a system for, like soccer, rugby or tennis. I would love to have my money in action 24/7. Why let it sit there, not making me money for a large portion of the day?
And of course, there’s the social aspect of it. My goal is to create a global community of people that bet on sports for a living. A community where we collectively feel a unity between us. Where we share our thoughts, experiences, successes, failures, tips and also just say … hey, how ya doin?
The past 2 weeks have shown me incredible results. I’ve increased my bankroll substantially. It has been one of those legendary winning streaks that dreams are made of. It has been one hell of a December to remember.
But I can’t let that rush get to my head. That rush will ruin me, if I let it. I have to stay smart, dedicated, and focused. The losing streak is coming. It’s right around the corner. I have to be prepared to go 2-15, and still get up the next day and make the same size bets, as if the past had never happened. Can you do that?
If you can’t, then you’re not ready. By all means, stick around and follow along as I (and the rest of my readers) remain calm and continue to crush it. It will click for you eventually, and when it does, the sky is the limit.
Remember, the world is against you. People want you to fail. You won’t even be able to tell most people what you’re doing. For one, they won’t care, and two, they’ll just be incredibly negative about it. Nobody wants you to succeed. Misery loves company.
Are you ready to handle a business where you have to keep quiet about it? Maybe just your spouse and your closest 1 or 2 friends will know about it. Are you okay with that?
Are you ready to handle a business that pretty much takes the fun out of something you do for entertainment? I used to bet on sports for fun, to add a rush to a game I was going to watch. I don’t do that anymore. I don’t bet on sports recreationally anymore. Sure, I still go to sports bars to watch UFC or my favorite football team, but I don’t bet on them anymore. It’s not fun for me. It’s business.
I personally love it. I wouldn’t have it any other way, and I hope that I will be doing this for years to come. Chances are, you won’t be. It takes a certain type of person; a certain type of character. Most people don’t have it. You probably don’t have it.
And there’s nothing wrong with that. Like I said, 99% of sports bettors don’t have that level of discipline. They simply can’t do it. I don’t fault them. Not everybody can bake cakes or cut hair or set a cast or defend you in a lawsuit … or run a successful sports betting business.
But if you think you’re different. No, scratch that. If you know that you’re different, then you will be able to make it. You will be able to at least make a nice side income from sports betting. Your bankroll and quality of desired lifestyle are really the only limiting factors in the equation.
Just like with any other business, expect the first 3-5 years to grow slow. Unless you’re coming in with a $100,000 to invest, then it’s going to take time to build up your bankroll to a level that can produce the level of income that you will require for your desired quality of life. If you only have $1,000 to start with, that means you will start off risking $10 a game. It would take you more time to grow your investment into something that produces $1,000 a month in income, compared to somebody that started with $25,000 and would start off risking $250 a game.
For most people that bet on sports, reading those numbers might be a shock to them. That’s just the reality of it. Those are the numbers to expect. That’s what it takes. The human brain wants what it wants now. We demand instant gratification. We’re not willing to put in the hours and do the work. We want it all, and we want it all right now.
It doesn’t work that way with this business (nor with any other business). As I’ve said countless times, success requires dedication. It requires patience. It requires persistence. Discipline. Obsession. Can you be disciplined? Are you willing to take it to a level where people would say that you’re obsessed? Obsession is just the hardcore version of dedication.
This blog is about transparency; no sugar-coating. It’s about what it really takes to make it in this business. It’s okay if you’re not cut out for it; most people aren’t. I am.
I will make a living from betting on sports.
Realistically, you can’t expect to make any money whatsoever from sports betting. That’s just the cold, hard reality of it. For the vast majority of people that bet on sports, it is pure entertainment for them. That is all they can ever hope to get out of it. Just entertainment.
They go with their gut. They remember last week’s game and how good their team was, and they bet emotionally. They fall for handicapper’s marketing claims, spending their hard-earned money on somebody else’s opinion (an opinion which was never any better than what you can come up with on your own), and they inevitably lose … yet again.
That’s the reality of sports betting. That’s why Las Vegas exists. That’s why sportsbooks exist. They exist because it’s a business designed to take your money, and provide a thrill in return. Entertainment. An adrenaline rush. It’s no different than you paying money to get drunk, or drive a fast car, or go bungee jumping.
Hey, I’m just being honest here. The cold, hard truth, no matter how tough it may be to hear. And ya know what? For the majority of people that bet on sports, they are completely okay with that. They see it as a form of entertainment. It’s their drug of choice. And there’s nothing wrong with that. But I want more.
Every single sports bettor in existence has wondered at one time or another if they were good enough to actually be able to bet on sports for a living. What kind of life would that be, huh? No bosses to worry about, no traffic to deal with, no co-workers, no endless meetings. Just wake up, do whatever you want to do, place your bets for the day, maybe watch a game or two. Have a couple of drinks. Fuck your wife. Sleep. Do it all over again the next day. Sounds great, right?
But then reality sets in. It always does. Betting on sports is one of the hardest ways to make an “easy” living. But it can be beat. It can be done. It will require an edge. It will require discipline. But it can be beat. This blog is an experiment to do just that.
To make the kind of income that it requires to live a relatively stress-free lifestyle, from sports betting, requires a significant bankroll. You will never be able to make a living from betting on sports if all you have to invest is $1,000. It can’t be done. You would need to win a parlay that paid out a huge return on your buy-in, just to build the bankroll needed to sustain your business.
I know that I’m starting with a $2,000 bankroll, but I’m also fully aware that it will take years before I will be able to quit my job and do this for a living full-time. As long as you’re aware of what a realistic time-frame is, and you have the patience and maturity that is required to make it in this business, then you have a shot at making it.
It’s not a game. It’s not a hobby. It’s not something you get drunk and do. It’s a business. It has expenses, and it has income. You must treat it as such. You wouldn’t show up drunk at your day job; you would probably get fired over it. Sports betting is no different. You almost have to erase the thought of gambling from your mind. You’re not betting on sports. You are trading assets. You’re buying low and selling high. It’s no different from investing in the stock market.
Handicappers would have you believe that you can make $10,000 in a weekend. No doubt, it’s absolutely possible – if you’re starting with a $25,000 bankroll and go on one hell of a streak. They do happen, definitely, but get ready for the losing streak that’s coming up right after it that’ll take away half of what you made.
That’s where discipline comes into play. There’s no place for emotions in sports betting. Only discipline. You don’t have discipline, you don’t play the game. It’s that simple.
Just this past weekend, I went on a crazy winning streak. Every thing that could possibly go right, went right. The moon and stars aligned perfectly. It was like getting served a plate of ribs, with a rum n coke on the side, and getting your dick sucked, all while watching Rambo. It was that kinda weekend. I won 70% of my bets, made 4 hundred bucks profit and close to a 37% ROI. I could’ve just as easily lost $400, though.
I’m fully prepared for that losing streak to happen. I do not bet emotionally. I have discipline. I follow the rules that I laid out in the beginning. They don’t let me down. Math never lies. It can’t. I put my trust in math. Always trust numbers.
I started this blog/experiment with a $2,000 bankroll. It hasn’t even been 2 weeks yet, and my bankroll has grown nicely. I made a grand in 2 weeks. That feels awesome just saying that out loud. If I can keep growing this steadily, I’ll easily be able to quit my day job, working as a cubicle monkey, asking for permission to go eat, and when I can go home.
My total cumulative ROI right now, as of the date of this article, sits at 46.45%. There is no way on God’s green earth that I can sustain that number. That would mean that if I put $100,000 into action (and that’s the total amount of risked money added up over time), that I would net $46,450 in profit, based on current ROI.
Let me further explain real quick what I mean when I say that you’re risking a total amount of money over time. Let’s say you bet $100 on one game, every day, for a month. You risk $100 on the first day, $100 on the 2nd day, etc. After 30 days, you’ve risked a total of $3,000. You never risked $3,000 at any one time. Hell, your bankroll might just be $500. But you’ve still managed to put into action a total of 3 grand. And going with my 46.45% ROI, that would produce a net profit of $1,393.50. Math’s great, ain’t it?
There’s another blog that I follow, Daily25.com, and he’s doing the exact same thing that I am, except he’s over in Australia, more focused on different sports. I focus on the American sports, because, well, I’m an American. His ROI, over the past 6 years, is 1%.
Over the past 6 years, he’s risked a total of 28.4 million dollars, and he’s made a net profit of $284,000. His average daily profit currently sits at $126.45. That’s $3,800 a month. 45 grand a year. You can definitely make a living on 45 grand a year, and it will only get better year after year, as your bankroll increases over time.
So back to what I was saying. I’ve been following along Steve over at Daily25, and his initial goal was to make $25 a day from betting on sports. Now his goal is $250 a day in profit. He started with a $50,000 bankroll. Over the past 6 years, he’s turned that $50,000 bankroll into almost $285,000. That’s just crazy.
To put that into perspective, based on the numbers on his site, if he had put that same $50,000 into an index fund, he would now have about $77,000. If he had put the $50,000 into a regular savings account that paid interest, he would now have $62,500.
As you can see, sports betting can definitely pay off, provided that you have a few tools at your disposal:
You need all 3. Not 2/3. All of them. 100% is what it takes to make it in this business. Not 75%. 100%. You can’t half-ass it. You’re either in, or you’re out. I’m in. I’m 100% in. If Steve at Daily25 can do it, then I damn sure can do it, too. He did it by paying for picks from 1 handicapper that developed a killer system. I developed my own killer systems, and I pay for picks from 1 handicapper (so far; I will be adding on 2 additional handicappers in the coming year).
I will most definitely update this article in the future, as I get more concrete numbers for you. I’ve given you the stone-cold facts. I’ve shown you an example of a guy that’s done it for the past 6 years and now makes a very respectable income from his blog.
[su_highlight background=”#fff717″]I’m next. If another man can do it, so can I.[/su_highlight]
[su_highlight background=”#fff717″]And if I can do it, so can you.[/su_highlight]