I'm glad to see a winning week, and things are definitely looking up again. I've never had a handicapper do that bad for so long. A 3-month losing streak is simply unacceptable, and for that reason, I am changing my handicapper criteria.
I can definitely understand if a handicapper (with a long-term proven record) floats around 50% for 3 months. It happens. It's just part of the business.
But I can't accept a handicapper that loses so bad for 3 months. It hurt my bottom line a lot. I could've made so much more money, just from increasing my bet sizes as my bankroll grew.
Now that my bankroll has been slashed so much, my bet sizes decreased quite a bit, so it will take time to rebuild back to where I was.
I made a total of 129 bets. I went 69-59, giving me a 53.9% win rate. I put a total of $2,159 into action, and made a net profit of $91.02, producing a 4.22% yield.
I did the best in MLB, and I did the worst in the NHL.
I made the most money at Bookmaker, while I lost the most money at BetOnline. I made most of my bets equally at BetOnline and Pinnacle last week.
I had 5 bets total for my free pick system, and I went 4-1, giving me an 80% win rate. I put a total of $71 into action, and I made a net profit of $21.09, producing a 29.7% yield.
I had 26 bets for my live betting system, and went 12-14, giving me a 46.2% win rate. I put a total of $409 into action, and I made a net loss of -$53.94, producing a -13.19% yield.
There were 7 picks, and they went 4-3, giving me a 57.1% win rate. I put a total of $147 into action, and I made a net profit of $11.09, producing a 7.54% yield.
Last week, there were 3 picks, and they went 3-0, giving me a 100% win rate. I put a total of $63 into action, and made a net profit of $18.28, producing a 29.02% yield.
I decided to add another MMA handicapper, and I went with Rob (BetonFights), and he sells his picks at Bookie Insiders. His record is very impressive, and MMA has been one of my highest yielding sports so far, so it makes perfect sense to me to increase my investment in it.
There were 2 picks, and he went 1-1, giving me a 50% win rate. I put a total of $42 into action, and made a net profit of $3.15, producing a 7.5% yield.
With each passing week, it's becoming more and more apparent to me that these guys are just a couple of recreational bettors. Sure, they know their stats, and their write-ups are great.
But they're losers. I've got em for 195 picks now, and they're still 50% cappers. As of today, it's been exactly 2 months since I started tracking them.
They don't have any long-term tracked record, so this was more of an experiment than anything else, but now it's time to pull the plug. I lost right at -$400 following their picks.
They had 28 picks last week, going 10-17, giving me a 37% win rate. I put a total of $460 into action, and made a net loss of -$85.50, producing a -18.59% yield.
Guillermo has been on fire, and I'm glad I went with him.
His first full week of picks, I didn't bet all of his picks, and I regret doing so. His system definitely works. The thing is, sometimes he picks both the money line and the run-line on the same game, so I was picking which one I wanted to go with, based on the odds.
That was a mistake, because I cost myself profit. He'll commonly bet a dog on the money line and then take the +1.5 on the run-line.
These bets hit a lot, so I started betting them after seeing how well they were doing the first week or so. I've been very impressed with his results.
I know that this streak will end, as his yield is way too high right now, compared to his long-term tracked record. His yield is right around 5% on the long-term, and he's hitting 18% for me so far this season (would be higher, but I addressed that above).
So I know that a regression towards the mean is coming. For now, I'm enjoying the wins. They're helping to grow my bankroll back to where it was.
He had 30 picks last week, and they went 22-8, giving me a 73.3% win rate. I put a total of $482 into action, and made a net profit of $208.30, producing a 43.22% yield.
Sports Insights wins some and loses some. I'm okay with these kinds of results, because their record definitely proves that their system works.
Fluctuating around 50% is perfectly fine to me, because I know that it only takes one awesome day to make your profit for the month.
As long as they don't go on a horrific 3-month losing streak, then I'll be a customer of Sports Insights for a long, long time. Plus, their lines product itself is awesome. It gives me so much information that I use on a daily basis. I love it.
There were 28 picks, and they went 13-15, giving me a 46.4% win rate. I put a total of $485 into action, and made a net loss of -$31.45, producing a -6.48% yield.
Since I started back on December 5, 2016, I have made a total of 1,563 bets. My total record is 824-716, giving me a 53.5% win rate.
I have put a total of $60,507 into action, and have a made a net profit of $1,002.39, producing a 1.66% ROI. My Return on Capital is 45.36%, which is quite impressive.
The average odds of my bets are -103, and my average bet size is risking $39.04.
I have made the most profit in MMA/UFC, and NHL has produced the worst return for me, only because of Pro Computer Gambler.
I made the most money placing my bets at BetOnline, and I've lost the most money at 5Dimes. I've made the most of my bets at BetOnline, with Pinnacle coming in 2nd.
As for the individual system/handicapper results:
MMA Betting Tips
The Sports Geek
I really like doing this weekly update, especially seeing the long-term numbers for each handicapper and system. It's easy to get the numbers distorted when you just look at things on a weekly or monthly basis. But when you see the long-term numbers, it really puts things into perspective.
My free picks are performing nicely, and I've made the most money with my live betting system. If I had the time and resources to run my PR system, it would definitely be my top-performing system.
Maybe one day in the future I can figure out a way to automate more of the process. It just simply takes up way too much time to get the plays, as there is so much data involved.
Now what I find really interesting is that even though my live betting system has produced the most income for me, I'm getting the greatest return from MMA. That's why I decided to add another MMA handicapper, because of how well it's been performing for me.
It's crazy to think that my bankroll would be increased by about $2,500 if I had never used Pro Computer Gambler, or tried the experiment with The Sports Geek.
My bankroll would be sitting around a bit more than $5,500 ($2,000 initial deposits plus $3,500 in profit) right now if not for those two. But, as I've said before, I knew the risk going in. Nothing is ever guaranteed.
I have been at this for 140 days now. That's an average of 11.2 bets per day. My average daily profit currently sits at $7.16, which is an average monthly profit of $217.78.
As for the Profit Performance graph, it's still trending downward, but if you look closely, you'll see that little uptick at the very end.
Things are definitely looking much better ever since I got rid of Pro Computer Gambler. A few more weeks and I hope to see the line being reversed and start trending upward again.
Steve firmly believes that most meals can be improved with mac n cheese. When he's not helping people make money betting on sports, Steve loves mountain biking, playing video games with his son, & annoying his wife. Oh, and he's a big Dallas Cowboys fan. Don't hate.
January Update: -$1,667.99 Loss