2018 has started off the same way 2017 did: a losing January! It's months like this that can be difficult for any sports bettor, no matter how seasoned you are. Maybe my systems don't work anymore? Should I change things? NO!
So I end January on a 2-month losing streak. The last time this happened was exactly a year ago, and you can take a look at my Profit Performance chart at the bottom of the page if you need a reminder to see what happened shortly afterwards: an amazing winning streak!
I'm ready to do it again, too. Losing streaks are tough, period. Even after thousands and thousands of bets, losing streaks definitely still affect me. I'd be lying if I said otherwise.
All I can do is look over my past results and see that my systems do work, and this is just variance at play. It's simply not possible to sustain the level of winning I was at.
I made a total of 176 bets. I went 76-92, giving me a 45.2% win rate. I put a total of $26,928 into action, and made a net loss of -$1,667.99, producing a -6.2% yield.
Converting that to units (or points), I risked a total of 176 units, and lost -10.9 units.
I did the best in MMA, and I did the worst in the NBA.
I made the most money at 5Dimes, and I lost the most money at BetOnline. I made most of my bets at Pinnacle.
Since I started back on December 5, 2016, I have made a total of 3,455 bets. My total record is 1867-1519, giving me a 55.1% win rate.
I have put a total of $302,665.50 into action, and have made a net profit of $7,060.75, producing a 2.3% return on turnover. My Return on Capital is 219.96%.
Converting that to units (points), I've made a total profit of 80.6 units, which is about a +0.19 unit per day profit (5.8 units average monthly profit).
The average odds of my bets are -106, and my average bet size is risking $87.59.
I have made the most profit in the NFL, with MLB coming in 2nd, and MMA trailing in third. College football has produced the worst return for me so far.
I made the most money placing my bets at 5Dimes, and I've lost the most money at Pinnacle. I've made the most of my bets at BetOnline, with Pinnacle coming in 2nd, and 5Dimes in 3rd.
Well, I have been at this for 423 days now. That's an average of 8.2 bets per day. My average daily profit currently sits at $16.69, which is an average monthly profit of $507.72.
And here's my Profit Performance graph:
This losing streak has been brutal. The great thing is that numbers don't lie. My profit trending line is still heading upwards, so that tells me all I need to know.
I made a profit in November, but I lost money in both December and January. Losing streaks suck, a lot.
There's nothing you can do to avoid them, and a great reason why learning how to lose is so incredibly important. I would say it's probably one of the top 3 skills you have to learn to make it in sports betting.
It's reach the point where it's statistically not possible for me to keep continuing at this rate of losing. The Law of Averages is going to kick in, and my regression to the mean is going to be stellar!
If my long-term average is about a 55% win rate, and I'm currently on a 45% win rate, that tells me that a huge win rate is coming, to bring me back to my average.
A nice 60-65% win rate for February will help a lot to bring my win rate back to normal, and will win me back everything that I've lost, and hopefully bring a nice profit, too.
Steve firmly believes that most meals can be improved with mac n cheese. When he's not helping people make money betting on sports, Steve loves mountain biking, playing video games with his son, & annoying his wife. Oh, and he's a big Dallas Cowboys fan. Don't hate.
December Update: -$898.55 Loss