The first time I wrote a 1,000 bet update was back in March. Now here we are at the end of May, and I've hit another 1,000 bets. 2,031 bets, to be exact.
Based on my current stats, it's looking like I can expect to make about 4,200 bets per year.
If I kept my bet amounts at the average level they are right now, I can expect to make close to $5,200 this year.
Of course, why would I keep betting at the same amount? That's what is so awesome about the power of compounding.
When I started, I was risking $20 per bet. Today, I'm risking $46 per bet.
So, making 4,200 bets a year, risking $20 for each bet, and with my current 3.28% yield, that would be $2,755.20 a year in profit.
I love that I have over 2,000 bets tracked now. It makes my current yield much more stable. I can't wait until I'm risking $100 per bet.
At $100 per bet, and 4,200 bets per year, with the same assumed 3.28% yield, that would earn me $13,776 in a year.
Granted, I know that almost $14,000 in the States is below the Federal Poverty Guidelines in the US (which is currently $12,060 for 1 person), but it's a starting point.
Since I was able to double the amount I risk per bet in 6 months, I'm expecting to double it again in another 6 months. That would put me right at $100 a bet by the end of the year.
That's also assuming that I don't invest any further money into my bankroll, which I do plan on doing at some point.
I've been investing quite a bit of money into programming and getting this website going (it's much more expensive than you might think!), so eventually, I'll be able to add more money to my bankroll.
I've got into much more of a rhythm with everything. It does take a lot of time, but I'm able to do just about everything from my iPhone Plus.
When I subscribed to many more handicappers than I am now, it was a lot more stressing. That was a lot of bets to make, and it started to turn into what felt like a full-time job.
I had to keep up with so many things, and it was like I was logging in and making a bet every hour. From tennis and soccer, and then the American sports, it was just way too much for me to take on at once.
I can imagine it sounds strange, because I would've thought the same thing in the beginning.
I mean, what's so hard about getting an email on your phone, making a few taps, and placing your bets?
Nothing's hard about it, at all. It's pretty easy, actually. #FirstWorldProblems, I know.
I guess it's just the stress of it. If this were my full-time job, that's one thing. But I have a full-time day job at an office. It's a little stressing when an email notification dings my phone, and I have to get up and leave my desk.
If the email has 5 picks for me to make, I have to check which sportsbook has the best odds, and make the bets. If it were just the 1 email, then it would be fine.
But when I had multiple handicappers releasing picks at different times of the day, plus, having to run my own systems on top of it, it was just a bit too much for me to handle.
Like I said, once my system and this site produces enough income to let me quit my day job, I won't have any issue whatsoever with this, and I'll be adding on quite a bit more handicappers (as much as my bankroll comfortably allows, and still give each handicapper a fair shot).
That's another mistake that I made: bringing on too many handicappers at one time.
Handicappers cost money, and in order to turn a profit, I have to risk a certain amount per bet. I was overextending myself, which put my bankroll at too much risk.
Thankfully it never happened, but there is a definite possibility of every handicapper and all of my systems having a horrible losing weekend.
If that had happened, I would've been done. I would've had to deposit more money into sportsbooks and start all over again.
That's not something I want to do, so I had to limit my exposure.
As I get more long-term data, I'll be able to more accurately see what the largest draw-down of my bankroll has been, and will be able to adjust to avoid a devastating reduction in my bankroll.
Ultimately, with me knowing what the largest draw-down has been over a few day period, over let's say 5,000 bets, I'll be able to limit my daily exposure to no more than risking a certain percentage of my bankroll.
Personally, I think it's better to risk the same amount on all of your bets, and so far, my records have been proving that that's accurate.
If you look at Bookie Insider's Soccer long-term tracked record, they're at 7.43% ROI, while I have them at 8.75% ROI over 56 bets.
Bookie Insider's MMA record is at 23.87% ROI, while I have them at 28.54%.
MMA Betting Tips has a 4% long-term tracked ROI (and he bets rather wrecklessly, even advising 10% of your bankroll on 1 bet), while I have him at 3.07%.
Custom2006's MMA picks have a 7.58% ROI over 2,241 picks, while I have him at 16.91% ROI.
Of course, their numbers are more accurate, as they've been tracked for much longer than I have, but you can clearly see that it doesn't make much of a difference whether you follow their unit amounts or risk the same amount per bet.
If anything, it might be more profitable to risk the same amount per bet, but I can't say that with certainty right now. I need way more data to be able to do that.
Looking over my stats, I still can't say which is going to be my most profitable sport. MLB, NBA and MMA are all producing really great returns for me.
So far with baseball, I'm getting a 6.07% return on turnover, while NBA gave me a 4.7% return.
Even though MMA has a lot fewer fights, it produces the greatest return (14%) and income for me so far.
I've made $1,183.88 on MMA, $1,025.34 on the NBA, and $962.49 on MLB.
They're all close enough to each other, but I can't say for certainty which one is going to end up being my most profitable sport.
I assume it will be MLB, because of the huge number of games per year. But if the MMA handicappers I'm with keep performing the way they do, then I'm going to have to expand my portfolio and add a couple more.
I know that picks will overlap, because they already do now with the handicappers I'm using. When this happens, I still make a bet for each pick, and if sometimes I have picks on opposite sides, then I juice out.
It's rare that I can catch that happening, because they don't release picks all at the same time.
I've noticed that I've developed an intuition with how the games are flowing, in regards to live betting.
For instance, in the NBA, I know that if my live betting system has a play on a certain team, and that team is killing the other team in the 1st quarter, I know that it's probably best to wait until the 2nd quarter to make that live bet.
Because teams don't usually continue to kill it every quarter. It doesn't always work, but there's typically a rebound by the other team, bringing the score more within range of each other.
Why make a bet on a -17.5 spread when I can wait a little bit and make one for -10 points?
Sure, it's backfired on me as well, and who knows, maybe in the long-run it all equals out, but it's just something that I've noticed from making so many NBA live bets.
I can't stress enough how important it is to record your bets - daily. If I didn't do it every morning, waiting even just 1 additional day causes things to get backed up.
I wouldn't have the stats that I have if I didn't record my bets. I wouldn't be as confident as I am if I didn't have a tracked record of over 2,000 bets.
I would probably still be wondering what-if.
I have a "to-do list" a mile long for this website. I have so many things planned, and it takes so long to do it right. I believe in quality over quantity.
Steve Wozniak said that you have to build something that you desperately want.
That is what I'm doing.
I haven't found a community of people that bet on sports for a living (or want to), based on the American time zones.
There are some in the UK and Australia, and I love reading their sites, but they cater more towards horse racing and soccer.
I wanted a community that catered towards the American sports, and definitely in the American time zones.
I couldn't find one, so I'm creating it.
As a sports bettor, I know what I desperately want. I'm building this site for me.
I hold myself to a very high standard.
These standards apply to anything I create as well. Some things fail, while others succeed.
I know that this will succeed.
The software that I have built (and is still being built), will make me a lot of money. It will eventually make other people a lot of money, too.
One of the issues I had when deciding to get into this business, was the time commitment.
I knew that it was going to take up a lot of my time. Not just the betting itself, but building out and running this website.
I also didn't want to be tethered to my laptop all the time, never being able to go outside and enjoy life.
So from the beginning, I wanted the ability to do as much as possible from my iPhone Plus. Sure, I do the site work on my laptop, but for my actual betting and running my systems, I have them setup so I can run them from my iPhone.
I went with an iPhone Plus because it has a much larger screen and it still fits in my pocket. I'm 6'4" with big hands, and those little tiny phones don't work for me at all.
So for this reason, I'm partial to sportsbooks with very mobile-friendly websites.
I'm funded at 12 sportsbooks, but looking at my stats, 5 of them are getting the most of my business.
In order from greatest to least: BetOnline, Pinnacle, 5Dimes, Heritage, Bovada.
This is over 2,000+ bets; BetOnline and Pinnacle get a combined nearly 1,200 of those bets.
616 bets at BetOnline.
541 at Pinnacle.
230 at 5Dimes.
206 at Heritage.
132 at Bovada.
Each of them has their purpose. I have the ability to open accounts at most global sportsbooks, but they don't usually have the best odds for the American sportsbooks.
Steve firmly believes that most meals can be improved with mac n cheese. When he's not helping people make money betting on sports, Steve loves mountain biking, playing video games with his son, & annoying his wife. Oh, and he's a big Dallas Cowboys fan. Don't hate.