Week 2 is now in the books, and while I didn’t kick as much ass as I did on the first week, it was still a really great week. I’ll take 2 dimes in profit any day of the week. Hell, my goal is to make 2 dimes a month, so 2 dimes in a week is damn good to me.
I made a total of 49 bets. I won 29 of them, lost 17, and pushed on 3, giving me a 63% win percentage. Still very awesome results. I put a total of $1,006 into action, and made a net profit of $227.01. I produced an ROI of 22.57%. Outstanding.
The NBA gave me the most profit, while college hoops gave me the highest return. MMA performed the worst.
MyBookie produced the most income this week, and the biggest return/ROI. The reason for that crazy-high return is because they gave me a large deposit bonus and I finally used it all up. Future returns will go back to normal amounts. Heritage Sports produced the worst results.
My 3 systems all produced a profit. The one handicapper’s MMA picks I paid for produced a loss, but that’s going to happen. All I care about is that I’m making a profit over the course of the year.
I had 3 bets this week under my FP system. 2 wins, 1 loss. $52 total bets, producing a profit of $19.67 and a 37.83% ROI. Profit is profit, and I’ll gladly take what I can get.
What a great week for my PR system. I had 22 bets. 14 wins, 5 losses, and 3 pushes, giving me a 63.6% win percentage. I put a total of $366 into action, making a profit of $216.35, producing a 59.11% ROI. Damn.
My live betting system didn’t do as well this week as it did last week, but still a profit. I had 14 bets. I won 9, lost 5, giving me a 64.3% win percentage. I put a total of $338 into action, and made a $65.39 profit, producing a 19.35% ROI.
Ouch. I didn’t do so well this week on MMA, but I can’t win every week. The handicapper released 10 picks. 4 wins, 6 losses. 40% win percentage. I bet a total of $250 and I took a loss of -$74.40, giving me a negative ROI of -29.76%. Oh well, it happens.
Since I started back on December 5, I’ve made a total of 119 bets. I’ve had 82 wins, 34 losses, and 3 pushes, giving me a 68.9% win percentage. I have a put a total of $2,385 into action, and have made a profit of $970.27, producing a 40.68% ROI. My ROI will continue to drop every week until it reaches it’s true number (it was distorted because of all the bonus money I received on my deposits). The average odds of my bets are -105.
As for the individual system/capper results:
I have been at this for 15 days now. That’s an average of 8 bets per day (again, distorted because of the large number of MMA picks on weekends, and well, just a larger number of bets on the weekends in general). My average daily profit currently sits at $64.68. Damn, I wish that was sustainable. Who wouldn’t love to profit an extra 2 grand a month? I can’t wait to see what the true numbers are after this winning streak is over.
Realistically, you can’t expect to make any money whatsoever from sports betting. That’s just the cold, hard reality of it. For the vast majority of people that bet on sports, it is pure entertainment for them. That is all they can ever hope to get out of it. Just entertainment.
They go with their gut. They remember last week’s game and how good their team was, and they bet emotionally. They fall for handicapper’s marketing claims, spending their hard-earned money on somebody else’s opinion (an opinion which was never any better than what you can come up with on your own), and they inevitably lose … yet again.
That’s the reality of sports betting. That’s why Las Vegas exists. That’s why sportsbooks exist. They exist because it’s a business designed to take your money, and provide a thrill in return. Entertainment. An adrenaline rush. It’s no different than you paying money to get drunk, or drive a fast car, or go bungee jumping.
Hey, I’m just being honest here. The cold, hard truth, no matter how tough it may be to hear. And ya know what? For the majority of people that bet on sports, they are completely okay with that. They see it as a form of entertainment. It’s their drug of choice. And there’s nothing wrong with that. But I want more.
Every single sports bettor in existence has wondered at one time or another if they were good enough to actually be able to bet on sports for a living. What kind of life would that be, huh? No bosses to worry about, no traffic to deal with, no co-workers, no endless meetings. Just wake up, do whatever you want to do, place your bets for the day, maybe watch a game or two. Have a couple of drinks. Fuck your wife. Sleep. Do it all over again the next day. Sounds great, right?
But then reality sets in. It always does. Betting on sports is one of the hardest ways to make an “easy” living. But it can be beat. It can be done. It will require an edge. It will require discipline. But it can be beat. This blog is an experiment to do just that.
To make the kind of income that it requires to live a relatively stress-free lifestyle, from sports betting, requires a significant bankroll. You will never be able to make a living from betting on sports if all you have to invest is $1,000. It can’t be done. You would need to win a parlay that paid out a huge return on your buy-in, just to build the bankroll needed to sustain your business.
I know that I’m starting with a $2,000 bankroll, but I’m also fully aware that it will take years before I will be able to quit my job and do this for a living full-time. As long as you’re aware of what a realistic time-frame is, and you have the patience and maturity that is required to make it in this business, then you have a shot at making it.
It’s not a game. It’s not a hobby. It’s not something you get drunk and do. It’s a business. It has expenses, and it has income. You must treat it as such. You wouldn’t show up drunk at your day job; you would probably get fired over it. Sports betting is no different. You almost have to erase the thought of gambling from your mind. You’re not betting on sports. You are trading assets. You’re buying low and selling high. It’s no different from investing in the stock market.
Handicappers would have you believe that you can make $10,000 in a weekend. No doubt, it’s absolutely possible – if you’re starting with a $25,000 bankroll and go on one hell of a streak. They do happen, definitely, but get ready for the losing streak that’s coming up right after it that’ll take away half of what you made.
That’s where discipline comes into play. There’s no place for emotions in sports betting. Only discipline. You don’t have discipline, you don’t play the game. It’s that simple.
Just this past weekend, I went on a crazy winning streak. Every thing that could possibly go right, went right. The moon and stars aligned perfectly. It was like getting served a plate of ribs, with a rum n coke on the side, and getting your dick sucked, all while watching Rambo. It was that kinda weekend. I won 70% of my bets, made 4 hundred bucks profit and close to a 37% ROI. I could’ve just as easily lost $400, though.
I’m fully prepared for that losing streak to happen. I do not bet emotionally. I have discipline. I follow the rules that I laid out in the beginning. They don’t let me down. Math never lies. It can’t. I put my trust in math. Always trust numbers.
I started this blog/experiment with a $2,000 bankroll. It hasn’t even been 2 weeks yet, and my bankroll has grown nicely. I made a grand in 2 weeks. That feels awesome just saying that out loud. If I can keep growing this steadily, I’ll easily be able to quit my day job, working as a cubicle monkey, asking for permission to go eat, and when I can go home.
My total cumulative ROI right now, as of the date of this article, sits at 46.45%. There is no way on God’s green earth that I can sustain that number. That would mean that if I put $100,000 into action (and that’s the total amount of risked money added up over time), that I would net $46,450 in profit, based on current ROI.
Let me further explain real quick what I mean when I say that you’re risking a total amount of money over time. Let’s say you bet $100 on one game, every day, for a month. You risk $100 on the first day, $100 on the 2nd day, etc. After 30 days, you’ve risked a total of $3,000. You never risked $3,000 at any one time. Hell, your bankroll might just be $500. But you’ve still managed to put into action a total of 3 grand. And going with my 46.45% ROI, that would produce a net profit of $1,393.50. Math’s great, ain’t it?
There’s another blog that I follow, Daily25.com, and he’s doing the exact same thing that I am, except he’s over in Australia, more focused on different sports. I focus on the American sports, because, well, I’m an American. His ROI, over the past 6 years, is 1%.
Over the past 6 years, he’s risked a total of 28.4 million dollars, and he’s made a net profit of $284,000. His average daily profit currently sits at $126.45. That’s $3,800 a month. 45 grand a year. You can definitely make a living on 45 grand a year, and it will only get better year after year, as your bankroll increases over time.
So back to what I was saying. I’ve been following along Steve over at Daily25, and his initial goal was to make $25 a day from betting on sports. Now his goal is $250 a day in profit. He started with a $50,000 bankroll. Over the past 6 years, he’s turned that $50,000 bankroll into almost $285,000. That’s just crazy.
To put that into perspective, based on the numbers on his site, if he had put that same $50,000 into an index fund, he would now have about $77,000. If he had put the $50,000 into a regular savings account that paid interest, he would now have $62,500.
As you can see, sports betting can definitely pay off, provided that you have a few tools at your disposal:
You need all 3. Not 2/3. All of them. 100% is what it takes to make it in this business. Not 75%. 100%. You can’t half-ass it. You’re either in, or you’re out. I’m in. I’m 100% in. If Steve at Daily25 can do it, then I damn sure can do it, too. He did it by paying for picks from 1 handicapper that developed a killer system. I developed my own killer systems, and I pay for picks from 1 handicapper (so far; I will be adding on 2 additional handicappers in the coming year).
I will most definitely update this article in the future, as I get more concrete numbers for you. I’ve given you the stone-cold facts. I’ve shown you an example of a guy that’s done it for the past 6 years and now makes a very respectable income from his blog.
[su_highlight background=”#fff717″]I’m next. If another man can do it, so can I.[/su_highlight]
[su_highlight background=”#fff717″]And if I can do it, so can you.[/su_highlight]
Well, the first week is now finished, and what an amazing week it’s been. If every week was just like this, I could easily be retired by now. Of course, it makes me really nervous, knowing what’s coming next. Anytime you go on such an awesome winning streak, the inevitable losing streak is right around the corner, waiting to bitch-slap your ass back down to Earth.
This week is also a great example as to why winning percentages don’t really matter that much; ROI (Return on Investment) is all that matters. Because 2 of my systems overlap each other (but have different lines, due to one being a live betting system), I am often betting on a game twice, which artificially inflates my win percentage.
I also made a mistake in the math on my spreadsheet, that was causing my bet/risk amounts to increase much faster than normal. I discovered the error yesterday (Sunday) morning, and corrected the bet amounts. Future growth won’t be as fast as this last week’s was, and I’m okay with that.
Alright, so let’s get down to it.
I made a total of 70 bets. I won 53 of them, and lost 17, giving me a 75.7% win percentage. Awesome. I put $1,379 into action (this is the cumulative total of all the money that I risked over the week; I didn’t risk that much on any given day), and made a net profit of $743.26. I produced an ROI of 53.9%. Like I said, if I could produce that every week, I would be retired by now.
I made the most money from the NBA this week, with the NFL providing the highest ROI.
I like seeing how each individual sportsbook does for me. I have a theory that I want to test over time, but I’ll need much more data before I can do that. My theory is that certain sportsbooks will either consistently win or lose me money, so I’m curious how this will play out over thousands of bets.
BetOnline made me the most money, while Bovada provided the highest ROI. Bovada is an absolutely great sportsbook for betting the dogs.
I have 3 systems that I created, and I’ve named them FP, PR, and LB. I’m also betting MMA picks from a handicapper that I pay for. There are 2 additional handicappers that I am interested in trying their picks, but I want to wait about 3 months before doing that.
I only had 2 bets this week, and they both won. My FP system doesn’t always produce a lot of bets, but they win at a pretty high rate. The ROI (listed under ‘Return’) is incredible at 177.14%, but that’s only because I used a free-play (a deposit bonus). I’m just about out of my free-play bonuses, with the exception of one sportsbook, so my ROI will be much more realistic in future weeks. I made a net profit of $38.97.
Amazing week. Out of 26 bets, I had 21 winners, producing an 86.47% ROI, and a net profit of $364.04. There is no way that is sustainable, but I’ll fully enjoy it while it’s being given to me.
Also a really great week. My LB system is my Live Betting system. It does overlap with the PR system. It’s actually the same system, but sometimes with the Live Betting system, some of the plays are eliminated. Out of 21 total bets, 16 won, for a 76.2% win percentage, producing an ROI of 50.45%, and a net profit of $199.78. Simply amazing.
I am currently paying for one handicapper’s picks, and he’s very good. He doesn’t always win; he’s very streaky. He’s been losing for the past few months, and pretty much won it all back and made a profit this month. That’s just how sports betting goes sometimes.
Out of 21 picks, I won 14 of them, for a 66.7% win percentage. I put a total of $540 into action, and made a net profit of $140.47, giving me a 26.01% ROI.
Great handicappers are out there, you just have to find them.
Since this is my first week, the cumulative results are the same as my first week results, so there’s no need for me to repeat those.
Since I first started 7 days ago, I’ve made an average profit of $106.18 per day. That’s simply incredible, but I would be a fool to expect these kinds of results to continue. I’ve made a total of 70 bets, for an average of 10 bets per day. Those results are skewed, because a lot of bets come in on the weekends, primarily because the MMA handicapper I use releases a lot of picks on fight nights (typically Friday and Saturday nights).
I’m very excited about these results, even as atypical as I know they are. But still, what an incredible way to kick this experiment off. I can’t wait to see how the results level off as the losing streaks come. I know, it sounds kind of messed up; I’m actually anticipating the losing streak.
I know what all my data shows me, but data and money in the bank are 2 entirely different things. 2 years from now, my goal is to be able to quit my job and live entirely from sports betting, and the income that this blog generates. One week down, 103 to go.
I'm going to guess that you're not a math genius (that's okay, neither am I).
There's nothing wrong with that most of us aren't.
There's also many sports fans who seem to know every stat, about every player, on every team, and they think that their knowledge is going to give them the edge needed to beat the sportsbooks.
It won't. The line already includes every bit of knowledge they have.
Sure, they'll have their winning streaks, and that causes them to wonder if they could actually do this for a living.
To those people, the answer is NO! They will not be able to make a living betting on sports.
If knowledge of the game was all you needed, there wouldn't be anybody working at ESPN, FOX Sports, or SKY; they'd all be rich from staying home and just betting on the games.
So for the rest of us who aren't delusional die-hard sports fans or math geniuses, that leaves us with the option of paying professionals for their opinions. These professionals are either called handicappers, touts or tipsters, depending on where you live in the world.
This blog is about my experiment to see if I can make a living just from betting on sports.
I'm not rich, so I still have a day job.
I'm starting with a $2,000 bankroll that I will be depositing into various sportsbooks.
One of the systems that I use (I developed it myself) is a live betting system, and BetOnline has one of the best live betting platforms (with decent limits) for Americans.
I will start off using the following sportsbooks:
They're all pretty much the same. They all pay fast, they all offer plenty of different wagering options. Most of them accept Americans and have great welcome and reload bonuses (only Pinnacle doesn't).
I have my reasons for having accounts at each of them. There are a few other European sportsbooks I will be creating accounts at eventually, because they offer a lot more bets for soccer.
For now, I'm sticking with the above sportsbooks.
Since none of my bets are any stronger than the others, I will be betting them all for the same amount.
Some handicappers release plays for multiple units, but I strictly bet the same amount on all bets. Therefore, the records I report for those handicappers will be slightly different than what they have.
I don't know how they pick their games, so I don't know if they rate their games based on a mathematical edge, or just how strongly they feel about the game. For this reason, I flat bet the same amount (level stakes).
The only time I would consider following a handicapper's unit rating system is if I knew that the picks came from a model, and the unit rating was directly related to what percent edge that pick had.
I will be betting to risk 1% of my bankroll, and this number will change daily. My spreadsheet keeps track of this for me, and tells me how much I should be risking per bet.
I will be as transparent as I can be. I will be tracking everything with a spreadsheet, and will be sharing those results with you.
I will be doing a weekly update post, and my weeks run from Monday to Sunday.
I have 3 systems that I developed myself. I probably won't ever reveal what they are, but they are definitely profitable.
I will also be purchasing picks from a few different handicappers that I trust and that have been in business for years.
Let's face it, most handicappers give the entire industry a bad name.
They're mediocre at best, but they're absolutely great at marketing, and manipulating your emotions.
They want you to think that something is wrong with you, and that you can't win without their advice.
They tout seemingly incredibly winning percentages (which are either extremely cherry-picked subsets of their bets), or more than likely, just outright lies), and frequently have Game of the Year bets every weekend.
They advise you to bet 10 units, or 10-20% of your bankroll on their plays. This is a quick way to lose all of your money. If you regularly risk more than 3% of your bankroll per bet, you WILL have to reload at some point. It's a mathematical certainty.
It's only a matter of when, not if. It will happen.
A lot of them say they have insider information, or used to play the game, or used to be a coach, or try to use trends, weather, or even "bad" game schedules (like east coast teams having to fly to the west coast for a late night game and then back the next day for an early game).
It's really no wonder they have such bad reputations.
Unfortunately, sports bettors fall for their scams every day, and then once they lose their money, they swear off handicappers for life, and never end up making money from betting on sports.
Obviously, I won't be using any of these types of handicappers. I have my own criteria that I'll be using to pick which handicappers that I'll be buying picks from.
I know that by restricting handicappers to the above criteria, I remove most of them. I’m fine with that. I’m incredibly picky about who I go into business with. You should never do business with a handicapper that you’ve never researched or never heard of before. They don’t have insider information. There are very few reliable betting models that work, so you have to go with professionals that use one of these models.
If you’re bored and you get a tout on the phone, try asking him how he gets his picks. What model does he use; how is he actually determining who is going to win the bet (whether money line, spread, total or 1st half)? Does he make his own lines and then look for discrepancies in the published lines (I wouldn’t ask a handicapper this directly, as they can simply say yes and that’s pretty much it)? Ask him what his ROI is over his last 1,000 picks. His winning percentage doesn’t matter. ROI is all that matters. You’re looking for somewhere around a 5% ROI, plus or minus a few points either way. Ask him if he assigns a rating to his picks (some of them refer to this as stars, units, dimes, etc), or if he bets everything for the same amount.
I know that people make money from betting on sports – and not just the sportsbooks. I know that my systems produce winning picks. I want to eventually quit my job and be able to bet on sports for a living, supplementing that with income produced by this blog.
I know that it will take at least a couple of years before I can hope to produce an income that I can live on. Since I’m starting with a $2,000 bankroll, my bets will be very small in the beginning. I will add more money to my bankroll as I can afford to do so, but $2,000 is what I’m starting with.
I want to be able to prove to people that the sportsbooks do not always win. It will take discipline and consistency, but I want to be able to prove that yes … you can make a living by betting on sports.