Weekly Update: -$221.77 Loss

I spent some time over the weekend going over all my stats, and it made me realize that most of my profits have come from my own systems and the MMA handicappers that I pay for. So why am I trying so hard to do what everybody else has tried to do (and failed)?

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If you take a look at all of the other bloggers that are doing what I'm doing, they all have something in common.

Sure, they're following a few handicappers or tipsters, but mainly, they've developed their own systems.

Some of them are trading, some of them are value betting, some are doing matched betting, while others are following handicappers (but they have much larger bankrolls that they can dedicate to each handicapper).

Looking at my performance graph, my profits were very steadily increasing. It was a very pretty chart. Things got ugly when I tried to take on too much, too soon.

It's time to go back to the basics; to what really worked well for me.

I've literally spent years perfecting my own systems, and they perform incredibly well. In fact, this whole time that I was on a losing streak, my own systems (plus the MMA handicappers) kept me from completely killing my bankroll.

I'll explain more later in this post.

Weekly Results for 
5/1/2017 - 5/7/2017

I made a total of 150 bets. I went 75-71, giving me a 51.4% win rate. I put a total of $4,679 into action, and made a net loss of -$221.77, producing a -4.74% yield.

How much money did I make this week betting on sports?

​Breaking it down by sport

I did the best in the NBA, and I did the worst in soccer.

​Breaking it down by sportsbook

I made the most money at 5Dimes, while I lost the most money at Pinnacle. I made most of my bets at 5Dimes.

Free Pick Betting System Results

I had 12 bets total for my free pick system, and I went 8-4, giving me a 66.7% win rate. I put a total of $386 into action, and I made a net profit of $53.70, producing a 13.91% yield.

Live Betting System Results​

I had 7 bets for my live betting system, and went 4-3, giving me a 57.1% win rate. I put a total of $231 into action, and I made a net loss of -$8.99, producing a -3.89% yield.

​Custom2006 MMA Results

No MMA picks last week.

MMA Betting Tips Results

There was 1 pick, and it lost. I put a total of $30 into action, and made a net loss of -$30, producing a -100% ROI.

Bookie Insiders MMA Results​

No MMA picks last week.

Guillermo Sanz (freddy) Results​

There were 45 picks last week, and they went 25-20, giving me a 55.6% win rate. I put a total of $1,411 into action, and made a net profit of $173.72, producing a 12.31% yield.

Sports Insights (Best Bets) Results​

There were 37 picks, and they went 19-16, giving me a 54.3% win rate. I put a total of $1,157 into action, and made a net profit of $77.81, producing a 6.73% yield.

Banker Bets Results

There were 8 picks, and they went 7-1, giving me an 87.5% win rate. I put a total of $246 into action, and made a net profit of $13.34, producing a 5.42% yield.

Banker Value Picks Results

The Banker Bets service released what they're calling a 2nd stream of picks, that they're calling their Value Picks. For tracking purposes, I'm treating it as a separate service.

There were 11 picks, and they went 4-7, giving me a 36.4% win rate. I put a total of $308 into action, and made a net loss of -$98.59, producing a -32.01% yield.

Bookie Insiders Tennis Results

Unfortunately, this service was really short-lived. The picks were released in the early morning hours for me, while I was sleeping.

Since a lot of European tennis matches also start in the early American hours, this service wasn't a fit for me at all. They switched my remaining subscription to another handicapper under their service, which is absolutely great customer service.

There were 4 picks, and they all lost, giving me a 0% win rate. I put a total of $132 into action, and made a net loss of -$132, producing a -100% yield.

Bookie Insiders Soccer Results

There were 14 picks, and they went 5-7, giving me a 41.7% win rate. I put a total of $433 into action, and made a net loss of -$91.26, producing a -21.08% yield.

Bookie Insiders US Sports Results

There were 11 picks, and they went 3-8, giving me a 27.3% win rate. I put a total of $345 into action, and made a net loss of -$179.51, producing a -52.03% yield.

Cumulative Results​

Since I started back on December 5, 2016, I have made a total of 1,828 bets. My total record is 970-828, giving me a 53.9% win rate.

I have put a total of $68,245.50 into action, and have made a net profit of $1,470.91, producing a 2.16% ROI. My Return on Capital is 66.56%, which is incredibly impressive.

The average odds of my bets are -103, and my average bet size is risking $37.64.

I have made the most profit in the NBA, with MMA a close second. NHL has produced the worst return for me.

I made the most money placing my bets at BetOnline, and I've lost the most money at Pinnacle. I've made the most of my bets at BetOnline, with Pinnacle coming in 2nd.

As for the individual system/handicapper results:

Winners

Losses

Win
Rate

Total
Risked

Total
Profit

Yield

Free Picks

72

50

59%

$5,077

$369.29

7.27%

PR System

96

58

62.3%

$4,562

$964.14

21.13%

Live Betting

232

170

57.7%

$15,523

$1,333.65

8.59%

Custom2006 MMA

78

63

55.2%

$5,569

$769.07

13.81%

MMA Betting Tips

26

13

66.7%

$1,760

$9.57

0.54%

PCG

166

205

44.7%

$17,893

-$2,142.97

-11.98%

The Sports Geek

94

97

49.2%

$8,529

-$398.55

-4.67%

Guillermo Sanz

105

62

62.9%

$4,019

$906.60

22.56%

Sports Insights

75

77

49.3%

$3,468

$99.93

2.88%

Bookie Insiders MMA

1

1

50%

$42

$3.15

7.5%

Bookie Insiders Soccer

10

10

50%

$664.50

-$27.78

-4.18%

Bookie Insiders Tennis

1

4

20%

$158

-$91.44

-57.87%

Bookie Insiders US

3

10

23.1%

$404

-$238.51

-59.04%

Banker Bets

7

1

87.5%

$246

$13.34

5.42%

Banker Value Picks

4

7

37.4%

$308

-$98.58

-32.01%

Well, the new handicappers I added in turned a winning week into a losing week. 

I've put a lot of thought into this, and I'm going to scale things back. Sports betting for a living has quite the learning curve to it, and I'm having to adjust things as I go.

I'm going to scale back to what I started doing in the beginning, to grow my bankroll more. My own systems plus the MMA handicappers I pay for perform really well, so I'm going to continue with those.

2 of the services are already up for renewal right now - Guillermo Sanz and Sports Insights. I'm not going to renew them. Yes, they are both profitable, but at this time, I feel that it's just too much for my bankroll right now.

Plus, even though it probably sounds weird, Guillermo Sanz makes me really nervous. He's been on an incredible winning streak. He's returning a 22.56% yield so far this season. That's awesome!

However, his yield over thousands of MLB picks is right around 5%. That means that any day now, he's in for one heck of a regression to the mean. The losing streak from hell is right around the corner.

I wish him the best of luck, and I know that I'll probably join him again next MLB season when I have a much larger bankroll, but for now, this is the right decision.

I'm going to finish out my subscription on Bookie Insiders for soccer and the US sports, then I won't renew those packages. I will continue with Bookie Insiders MMA, because MMA is my 2nd most profitable sport, and provides a very nice ROI for me.

I'm still in the beginning stages, and I'm more comfortable with less bets right now. With more services comes an increase in bets. I simply don't have a large enough bankroll to bet all of the picks with the proper amounts.

I do really like the Banker Bets service, so I'm going to continue with that. It has a high win rate, with a low return, but it is profitable.

So, moving forward (after these subscriptions run out), I will be running my own systems, betting MMA picks from Custom2006, MMA Betting Tips, and Bookie Insiders MMA, and betting soccer picks from Banker Bets.

I have been at this for 154 days now. That's an average of 11.9 bets per day. My average daily profit currently sits at $9.55, which is an average monthly profit of $290.52.

As for the Profit Performance graph, its returned back to a downward trend, but I'm okay with that. I could only imagine where it would be at had I just stuck with my original plan.

Performance Chart

About the Author Steve

Steve firmly believes that most meals can be improved with mac n cheese. When he’s not helping people make money betting on sports, Steve loves mountain biking, playing video games with his son, & annoying his wife. He also drinks green smoothies, but don’t hold that against him. Oh, and he’s a big Dallas Cowboys fan. Don’t hate.

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