I’ve been trying to beat the sports betting game for a long time now. It’s only until the past couple of years that I actually got disciplined enough to start thinking that I could actually be able to (one day) quit my job and bet on sports for a living.
My original plan was to start with a $2,000 bankroll and turn it into $1 million dollars within 10 years.
It sounds crazy, doesn't it?
That you could actually start with $1,000 (and a ton of patience) and turn it into $1,000,000 in just 11 years seems like one of those things that are just too good to be true.
The catch is that it takes a 6% monthly return on turnover, which is definitely possible.
Results should be measured over seasons, not days. What makes compounding so powerful is that it takes a ton of small, boring wins, and turns them into a colossal return, over time.
The question is: do you have the patience to wait 11 years?
If you knew that you could quit your job in 11 years, but you would have to grind during those 11 years, would you do it?
Let's face it, starting with a $1,000 bankroll and risking $10 per bet is boring!
After 1 month, with a 6% return on turnover, betting 3 games a day, that $1,000 turns into $1,054.
It doesn't seem worth it, does it?
Betting every day for a month, and all you'd have to show for it is a crappy 54 bucks?!
But now we're in month 2, and since we're risking 1% of bankroll per bet, now we're risking $10.54 per bet. I like to round my bets to whole numbers, so our new risk amount would be $11 per bet.
So at month 3, our initial $1,000 has now turned into $1,113.40.
Start of month 4, we're at $1,172.80. yawn! So after 3 months, we have a whole whopping $173 bucks to show for our hard work. See, I told yah, it's incredibly boring!
Month 5, and now we're risking $12 per bet. Our $1,000 has now turned into $1,237.60.
Month 6, we're still at $12 per bet, and now we're at $1,302.40.
Month 7, we've increased to risking $13 per bet, and we're at $1,372.60.
Month 8, we're risking $14 per bet, and we're at $1,448.20.
Month 9, still at $14 per bet, and now we have $1,523.80.
Month 10, now we're risking $15 per bet, and we have $1,604.80.
Month 11, we're risking $16 a bet, and we have $1,691.20.
Month 12, now we're at $17 a bet, and we're starting with $1,783.
So after 1 year, we're now risking $18 a bet, and our initial $1,000 has turned into $1,880.20.
We've worked an entire year and made a grand total of $880.20.
See? I told you. Incredibly. Insanely. Boring.
But it gets better.
At the start of year 3, you're now at $3,538.
And then when year #4 rolls around, you have $6,640.
Start of year 5, you have $12,477.
So after 5 long years, starting on year 6, your initial $1,000 starting bankroll has now compounded into $23,445.
You'll see that the compounding happens a lot faster now that your bankroll has started to grow into something respectable.
So at year 7, now you're at $44,051.
Start of year 8, you have $82,801.
Start of year 9, you're at $155,625.
Start of year 10, you're at $292,516.
So at the end of 10 years, you've turned that $1,000 starting deposit into $549,834.
Alright, so it's going to take a tad bit longer than 10 years, but it sounds way cooler to say that you turned a $1,000 into $1 million in 10 years, right?
So, after 10 years and 1 month, you now have $579,523.
After 10 years and 2 months, you're at $610,816.
After 10 years and 3 months, you're at $643,799.
After 10 years and 4 months, you're at $678,564.
After 10 years and 5 months, you're at $715,208.
After 10 years and 6 months, you're at $753,828.
After 10 years and 7 months, you're at $794,543.
After 10 years and 8 months, you're at $837446.
After 10 years and 9 months, you're at $882,671.
After 10 years and 10 months, you're at $930,336.
After 10 years and 11 months, you're at $980,572.
And finally, at the end of 11 years, you have turned your $1,000 starting bankroll into an "easy" $1,033,524.
And if you started with a $2,000 bankroll, you'd shave a year off and you'd have a million dollars in 10 years.
Just imagine how much faster it would've been had we started with risking 2% per bet, instead of 1%!
Now, let me get a little nerdy here and go over how I got these numbers.
Actually, let's backup just a second. What's turnover?
Turnover is the total amount of money that you have bet over a given period. It's the amount of money that you've turned over.
So let's say that it's a normal football weekend; you don't have anything to do, wife's out of town visiting her folks, took the kids with her. You buy a couple cases of beer, and look forward to betting the games Saturday and Sunday.
You see 4 college football games you like on Saturday, so you put $100 down on each of them. You've bet a total of $400. So far, you've turned over $400. At this point, it doesn't matter whether you win or lose them. You've "invested" $400.
Now Sunday rolls around. Remember, it doesn't matter how you did on Saturday. You like 3 games on Sunday's card, so you put another $100 down on each of them. You've bet a total of $300 for the day.
So for the entire weekend, you risked a total of $700. $700 is your turnover. If your goal was to make a 5% return on your turnover, then you want to make $35 for the weekend.
Doesn't sound like much, does it? $35 is nothing. But that's the reality of sports betting. That's what it actually takes to let compounding work for you, and turn a small bankroll into a large one.
Because eventually, you'll be betting $1,000 a game. And with the same scenario, you would've profited $350 for the weekend. Not bad.
And then there will eventually come the time where you're betting $5,000 a game, and you would've profited $1,750 for the weekend. So just betting weekends only, that'd earn you $7,000 a month.
It takes time. It takes a lot of patience. But it does pay off, if you let it.
Next up, let's go over how to calculate your annual return based on your monthly return. No, it's not as easy as multiplying your monthly return by 12 (because of compounding).
There's a pretty simple formula you can use to determine this:
So let me explain this formula.
Annual return = ((1 + Period return) ^ Number of periods) -1
Since we are trying to define our annual return, and we know our monthly return, then replace "Period return" with your monthly return on turnover. For this example, we're going to use 6% (converted to decimal). So the new formula is now:
Annual return = ((1 + 0.06) ^ Number of periods) -1
There are 12 months in a year, so replace "Number of periods" with 12:
Annual return = ((1 + 0.06) ^ 12) -1
You can paste that formula right into Google if you want, and it'll give you back: 1.01219647184
To convert this number to a percentage, just multiply by 100.
1.01219647184 x 100 = 101.22%
So with a 6% monthly return on turnover, you double your money every year.
Where else are you to get this kind of return??
Time flies by. When I think back 10 years ago, it seems like it was almost 2 years ago. If I only had started 10 years ago, where would I be right now?
Coulda, woulda, shoulda, I know. Hindsight is 20/20.
But that doesn't mean you can't start now. I started back in December 2016 with $2,000. I've turned it into $12,000, less than a year later.
Even if you don't have a winning sports betting system, with a bit of research you can find winning handicappers that provide a 5%+ monthly return.
Where will you be in 10 years? Will you be a millionaire? Or will you be stuck in a cubicle, hating 11 hours of your life every single day?
I know where I'll be in 10 years.
We all know somebody that's really bad at picking winners, right?
Hell, maybe you're that loser! (don't worry if you are; I used to lose like crazy until I got disciplined and figured this whole sports betting thing out).
I remember when I got the genius idea that I would finally make a consistent income by just betting the opposite side of the picks that a losing handicapper would give out.
It seemed like a sure thing. I mean, it's super easy to find a losing tout, right?
Yes ... and no.
You can go to any sports betting forum and check out the 'Service Plays' section, where people post and share the sports picks that they buy, and you won't find any shortage of "professional" handicappers that seem like they're always losing.
I had the same thought at one time. It was genius, I tell ya.
I was going to just fade (fading means to bet the opposite side of what a handicapper gives out) a few of the big-name touts (a tout is just another name for a handicapper or tipster) and make some money that way.
Unfortunately, it didn't work out too well.
You see, most handicappers, just like most sports bettors, win between 48% and 52% of their games.
Sure, most of them are absolutely great at marketing, but in the end, their handicapping abilities are pretty much the same as any regular sports fan.
And just like with most sports bettors, most handicappers are losers. So you would think that the key to winning is just to fade them.
I mean, I thought the same thing, too, and it burned me in the end.
You see, while they do lose most of the time, because of the standard -110 juice you have to pay, you have to win 52.4% of your bets just to break even. Or a handicapper has to lose more than 47.6% of the time in order for you to even afford to pay for his picks.
Even the greatest fade out there, Brandon Lang, wins just 50% of the time. So even if you straight-up faded his picks, you'd still juice out and lose money. The key to making money by fading Lang is by fading his "dime" amounts. You can read the article I wrote on how to make money betting on sports by fading Brandon Lang.
Ultimately, there is money to be made in fading handicappers. After all, it's the entire basis for all of my systems right here on my website. Even my CF system stands for my Contrarian Fade system.
However, I would say that with very few exceptions (Brandon Lang being one of them), that no, you can't make money by just straight-up fading losing handicappers. You still need an edge.
Finding that edge certainly is possible. It's taken me over a decade of pouring over so many stats and analyzing the heck out of my spreadsheet, but it is doable. All I've gotta say is that you've certainly got your work cut out for yah.
You know that you’re really bad when people buy your picks just to fade them.
That’s the case with good ole Brandon Lang.
There’s an entire thread on a sports betting forum (you can read it over at TheRX) that has over 33,000 posts spanning over 1,300 pages, with people doing nothing but bashing him and betting against his picks.
Yes, I bet parlays (also known as accumulator bets outside of America). They're very profitable, when used with an existing winning sports betting system.
I've heard it time and time again that parlays and teasers are sucker bets, but I have no problem using them for +EV (positive expected value) bets.
What a spectacular month August was! I went on one heck of a winning run, and made the most profit in a single month that I've made since I started this site (I tripled my previous best month!).
July could've gone either way, but I did manage to pull out a small profit. Better than a loss, though, right? I was travelling for much of July, so I kept it simple and only bet on my own systems this month. I didn't make a single bet on any of the handicappers that I follow, and I actually really enjoyed it.Continue reading
June was another winning month, and I couldn't be happier with the results. It did about the same as what May did, and I hope that July produces an even greater return. I did make a few changes in June, and I think it's going to produce an ever greater income, while minimizing my exposure.Continue reading
I can't believe it's already June. 6 months have gone by, and I couldn't be happier with my results and how this site has started to grow. It's great that after February and March's losing streak, I had winning months in both April and May, which completely recovered me from the losses I had.Continue reading